United States Joint Forces Command:
U.S. JOINT OPERATING ENVIRONMENT REPORT 2010
“A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity. While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India. At best, it would lead to periods of harsh economic adjustment. To what extent conservation measures, investments in alternative energy production, and efforts to expand petroleum production from tar sands and shale would mitigate such a period of adjustment is difficult to predict. One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest...By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day...The implications for future conflict are ominous, if energy supplies cannot keep up with demand and should states see the need to militarily secure dwindling energy resources.”
According to the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration:
Out of the 19.498 million barrels of oil the US consumes each day 8.989 million barrels of oil is consumed as gasoline and 3.945 million barrels is consumed as Distillate Fuel Oil (Diesel Fuel and Heating Oil). I'm not sure how much of that is consumed by the US Military. However...
...Using an analogy to put the U.S. JOINT OPERATING ENVIRONMENT REPORT 2010 into perspective, a 10 M/bbl per day shortfall out of the global supply chain would be like having every gasoline station in the US going dry. It's akin to having every county dirt road, every city road, every state highway, and every interstate highway vacant of automobiles across all 50 states.
